That, according to the late British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, continues to be the biggest obstacle a political campaign must overcome. I predicted back in January 2023 that a number of “Known-Unknowns,” including how the Middle East, Ukraine, and economy turn out, will probably have a greater impact on the 2024 election than the campaigns themselves.
President Joe Biden appeared to be the front-runner at the moment, while the GOP nominee was unknown. After two years, Vice President Kamala Harris succeeded Biden, and former President Donald Trump stormed to the nomination. Nevertheless, there are still a lot of unanswered questions, despite surveys showing little change in popular sentiment.
There are four that could influence voter behavior in the near future, or not.
Teams in crucial battlegrounds support Trump over Harris because the numbers don’t lie.
1. The financial system
Will the Federal Reserve’s future moves alter its perceptions of the economy? Wall Street reached an all-time high after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.5% interest rate drop, indicating that the economy is doing better than many had believed a few months ago. According to polls, Trump and Harris are now tied in terms of the voters’ perceived level of trust about the economy, which was previously the case for Trump.
