Whether Labour secures a majority in Westminster has always depended heavily on their performance in Scotland.
In Scottish polls, however, the Conservatives receive the biggest gutter punch; according to YouGov, they are tied with the Liberal Democrats at 11%. This is a rather disastrous stance for a party that leads Holyrood’s official opposition.
However, when voters think about their constituency in the Scottish elections of 2026, their sentiments shift.
Voter intentions as of June 18 changed to 28% for the SNP, 24% for Labour, 10% for the Conservatives, and 7% for the Liberal Democrats.
This indicates that Scottish voters behave differently in the UK and Scotland. It also implies that the former opens up the possibility of a vote in protest.
Either a protest against Westminster’s 14 years of Conservative rule, or a warning shot taken at the SNP’s track record following 17 years in Holyrood.Although the SNP is gaining ground on Labour north of the border, a News poll indicates that Sir Keir Starmer will still benefit greatly from Scottish votes at the polls.
According to a YouGov exclusive for News, the SNP is at 29% and Labour is at 35% in Scotland.
