The two distinguished analysts dropped a bomb last week when they declared that they thought the leader of the pariah state was getting ready for war.
They claimed that Kim Jong Un had abandoned the fundamental objective of making amends and reunifying with South Korea. Rather, he portrays the North and South as two sovereign states engaged in conflict with one another.
Siegfried S. Hecker, a nuclear scientist who has visited the North multiple times, and Robert L. Carlin, a former CIA analyst, wrote in an article that they believed Kim Jong Un had made a strategic decision to go to war, just like his grandfather did in 1950.
Such a declaration sparked a heated discussion among those who follow North Korea and raised alarms in Seoul and Washington.
The majority of analysts, however, reject the war theory; when the BBC contacted seven specialists in Asia, Europe, and North America, none of them endorsed the notion.
“It is not in line with North Korea’s values to gamble their entire system on a potentially catastrophic conflict.” They have shown themselves to be extremely Machiavellian,” says Christopher Green, a Netherlands-based Crisis Group analyst who follows Korea.
He and others observe that political pressures exist at home as well as that the North frequently takes action to force Western powers to the negotiation table.
They do concur, though, that Mr. Kim’s regime has become more dangerous and that his increased bellicosity cannot be disregarded.
While the majority contend that war is still unlikely, some worry that a more constrained attack may yet be imminent.
