He is the first US president, either in office or out of it, to be found guilty of a felony. In addition, he is the first presumed major-party nominee to have been convicted of a crime.
It’s not too early to think about the political ramifications while Trump prepares to file an appeal in the hush-money case and awaits a judgment on July 11 that could theoretically involve jail time and a sizable fine.
But considering that this has never happened before, that will be challenging.
“We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to happen,” says Southern Methodist University’s Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History.
It is only a few days after his punishment that Trump, who earlier this year won the Republican presidential nomination, will be celebrated at the party convention.
According to surveys, he and President Joe Biden are statistically tied, and he has a little advantage in many of the crucial swing states that will determine the outcome of the election. But the studies also indicate that this conviction might change everything.
Double digits of respondents stated in exit surveys taken during the Republican primaries this winter that they would not support the former president if he was found guilty of a crime.
According to an Ipsos and News survey conducted in April, 16% of Trump supporters said they would think twice about their support in such a circumstance.
