Thirty days until the midterm elections, Donald Trump and his Republican supporters are pulling out all the brakes to keep control of Congress.
Super PACs allied with the GOP have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising and voter outreach in races slated to determine Senate and House majorities, and they intend to spend significantly more before the election. The president, vise president JD Vance, and other prominent Republicans are traveling around the country to campaign for vulnerable members.
Quick Fact
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| What happened | Recent polls show increased Democratic support among Latino voters. |
| Where | Across the US, with a notable shift in Texas. |
| When | 2026, ahead of the November midterm elections. |
| Who is involved | Latino voters, Democratic candidates, Republican candidates, and the Trump administration. |
| Current status | Polling indicates stronger Democratic support among Latino voters than in 2024. |
| Why it matters | Latino voters could play an important role in closely contested races, particularly in Texas. |
Republicans Struggle to Hold Senate
So yet, there is little evidence that the money or rallies have helped what seems to be a dire situation for Republicans, less than two years after their landslide victory in the 2024 election. According to recent surveys, the party’s candidates continue to behind their Democratic counterparts in Senate contests that will determine the chamber’s majority.
“Candidate quality is beating gobs of Republican money,” the Senate’s Democratic minority leader Chuck Schumer joked over the weekend, as the News issued the latest in a series of highly monitored surveys confirming the momentum.
Democrats Gain Ground in Key States
In Kansas, where no Democrat has been elected to the Senate in 94 years, the party’s nominee Adam Hamilton was neck-and-neck with Republican senator Roger Marshall, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is lagging Republican contender Ashley Hinson. According to the Times and Siena, Democratic candidates for governor were leading in numerous normally Republican states.
“If the election were held tomorrow, all state-wide races [would] go blue,” wrote Briscoe Cain, a Republican state lawmaker from Texas, on X Monday. The Democrats’ Senate candidate James Talarico and gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa were both ahead in the Times poll.
Democrats Build Momentum in Congress
Last Friday, Semafor revealed that the Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent GOP Super Pac, planned to withdraw funds from its candidate Michael Whatley’s campaign in North Carolina in favor of increasing support for Marshall in Kansas.
No Democrat has won a US Senate election in North Carolina since 2008, and Whatley has been behind in surveys for months. Democrats must win at least four seats in the house to reclaim the majority lost in the 2024 election.
Democrats’ effort to regain the House looks to be going well.
Trump Approval Hits New Low
Trump’s popularity ratings remained at their lowest point in his career, with only 32% of adults approving of his job as president. Independent voters, whose votes sometimes make the difference in close contests, expected to support Democrats by a 16-point edge, though many were unsure.
The president’s low scores are seen to be a big contributor to the Republican candidates’ troubles across the country, but they are far from the sole reason. Discontent with the status of the economy, notably the price of fuel and other consumer essentials, is another factor, as is the on-and-off-again confrontation with Iran.
Republicans Face Coalition Erosion
Republicans feel that they have opportunities to win in both chambers of Congress. Eight House Republicans represent districts that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, compared to 22 House Democrats – a figure that has increased due to Trump’s extraordinary redistricting fight.
Many polls suggest that Americans have a bad image of the Democratic Party, yet their views of Republicans are also negative. And, despite significant fundraising efforts by some Democratic candidates, Republicans and groups supporting their agenda have more money to spend on this election.
Latino Voters Shift Toward Democrats
“We’ve seen among Latino voters, as we’ve seen in the electorate as a whole, a real strong rejection of the Trump administration, and that has inflated into an increase in support for Democratic candidates,” said Maria Isabel Di Franco Quinonez, a senior research director at Equis Research, a progressive firm that focuses on community issues.
If the trend continues, it might boost Democrats’ chances in states and districts with big Latino populations. The effect might be significant in Texas.
