ISLAMABAD: Amidst economic uncertainty, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government may prove to be a house of cards in the next 1.5 years, according to a prognosis by BMI, a Fitch Solutions firm. Imran Khan, the founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is also unlikely to walk free anytime soon.
As per BMI’s Pakistan Country Risk Report for the fourth quarter of 2024, “opposition leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future, despite several successful legal appeals.”
The risk assessment firm also outlined a bleak future for the ruling alliance, which is thinking of outlawing PTI as a political party due to its purported anti-state activities in the wake of the nation’s highest court’s decision to uphold the party’s reserved seat claim.
“Over the next 18 months, we anticipate that the government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will hold onto power and be successful in implementing the fiscal reforms that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has mandated.”
To make matters worse, the Fitch Solutions firm also seems to have worked out what or who will step in to fill the void left by the expected overthrow of the current administration.
The BMI predicted that “a technocratic administration is the most likely alternative, rather than fresh elections, in the unlikely event that the government is replaced.”
Regarding the dangers, the research notes that there is a higher probability of unfavorable events or causes influencing future growth than of favorable ones.
