An anonymous trader on a crypto prediction platform made a massive profit after betting on the removal of Venezuela’s president just before it became public news.
The bettor earned more than 436000 dollars after placing wagers that President Nicolás Maduro would be out of power before the end of January. The bets were made on Polymarket, a crypto based prediction site that allows users to wager on political and world events.
What raised eyebrows was the timing.
Sudden Spike Before Official Announcement
On Friday afternoon, the chances of Maduro losing power were seen as very low. Polymarket data showed odds of only 6.5 percent. However, those odds began to climb late at night and surged sharply in the early hours of January 3.
Just hours later, former US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social claiming that Maduro had been captured and was in US custody.
One newly created Polymarket account placed four separate bets, all focused on Venezuela. The user reportedly risked around 32537 dollars and walked away with more than 436000 dollars in profit. The account was anonymous and identified only by a blockchain address.
Concerns Over Possible Inside Information
The unusual betting activity has triggered concerns about whether someone may have acted on confidential information.
Dennis Kelleher, head of the financial reform group Better Markets, told CBS News that the trade showed clear warning signs of insider knowledge. He said the pattern closely resembled trades based on non public information.
Several other users on the platform also earned tens of thousands of dollars by betting on Maduro’s removal before the announcement.
Lawmakers and Regulators Take Notice
The incident has drawn attention from US lawmakers. Congressman Ritchie Torres of New York introduced a bill that would ban government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess material non public information related to those bets.
Prediction markets have grown quickly in the United States. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now attract millions of dollars in wagers on politics, sports, and global events. During the 2024 US presidential election, these platforms handled hundreds of millions in bets.
A Lightly Regulated Industry
Unlike stock trading, prediction markets operate in a regulatory gray area. Insider trading laws are strict in financial markets, but similar rules are limited or unclear when it comes to prediction based betting.
Under the Biden administration, prediction markets faced increased regulatory pressure. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the industry has seen a more welcoming environment.
Donald Trump Jr currently holds advisory roles at both Kalshi and Polymarket.
