Copernicus Data Shows 11 Straight Record Warm Years
New analysis from Copernicus and other leading climate agencies confirms that 2025 ranks as the third-hottest year on record. This continues a worrying trend: the past 11 years are now officially the 11 warmest ever recorded.
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), reports that global temperatures in 2025 were just 0.01°C cooler than 2023 and 0.13°C below 2024, still the hottest year on record.
Other agencies, including NASA, NOAA, the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth, and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), confirm the findings, highlighting broad scientific agreement on the pace of global warming.
Carlo Buontempo, Director of C3S, warned: “The fact that the last eleven years were the warmest on record shows the clear trend toward a hotter climate. We are approaching the Paris Agreement temperature limit; our challenge is to manage the inevitable overshoot.”
A Critical Climate Milestone
The three-year period from 2023 to 2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). This marks the first time any three-year span has exceeded the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Long-term global warming is now estimated at around 1.4°C, putting the 1.5°C threshold within reach before 2030—over a decade earlier than expected.
How Warm Was 2025?
Copernicus data shows global surface air temperatures were 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels. 2024 remains the hottest year at 1.60°C.
Land areas globally recorded the second-warmest year ever, while the polar regions experienced extreme warmth.
Polar Extremes Offset Cooler Tropics
Temperatures in the tropics were slightly lower in 2025, partly due to ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
However, these cooler tropical temperatures were offset by extreme warming at the poles. Antarctica recorded its warmest year ever, and the Arctic its second warmest. Elevated temperatures were also noted in the northeastern Atlantic, the Pacific, Europe, and central Asia.
Drivers of Recent Heat
Scientists identify two main causes of the exceptional warmth in 2023–2025:
- The continued accumulation of greenhouse gases from human activity, combined with natural systems absorbing less CO₂.
- High ocean temperatures are boosted by earlier El Niño conditions and long-term climate change.
Other factors include changes in aerosols, low cloud cover, and atmospheric circulation patterns.
Heat Stress, Wildfires, and Human Health
In 2025, about half of the world’s land experienced more days than usual with strong heat stress, defined as “feels-like” temperatures of 32°C or higher.
The World Health Organization identifies heat stress as the leading cause of weather-related deaths worldwide. Hot, dry, and windy conditions also fueled severe wildfires in Europe and North America. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data shows Europe recorded its highest annual wildfire emissions, reducing air quality over large regions.
Extreme Events Highlight Urgency
While the report does not link individual disasters directly to climate change, 2025 saw record heatwaves, storms, and major wildfires across Europe, Asia, and North America. Events in Spain, Canada, and Southern California illustrate the real-world impacts of rising temperatures.
Tracking the Path Ahead
Laurence Rouil, Director of CAMS at ECMWF, said: “Atmospheric data from 2025 shows human activity remains the main driver of exceptional temperatures. Greenhouse gases have steadily increased over the last decade. We must continue monitoring emissions and atmospheric trends to guide policies on climate and air quality.”
The Copernicus data makes one thing clear: record-breaking warmth is no longer an anomaly—it is becoming the new normal.
