Population drops due to reduced temporary residents
Canada’s population fell by 76,068 between July and October, according to Statistics Canada. The decline is largely linked to limits on immigration and a drop in non-permanent residents, such as international students and temporary foreign workers. Ottawa aims to keep temporary residents at 5% of the 41.6 million population by 2027.
Shift from record growth to population contraction
This change follows a surge in 2022 when Canada’s population grew by over a million, fueled by immigration programs aimed at addressing labor shortages. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, speaking from Berlin, explained that the government wants to balance the country’s capacity to welcome newcomers with the demand to immigrate.
Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic described the population drop as the “sharpest, and only second, quarter-over-quarter decline on record since the 1940s,” calling it a major economic adjustment.
Immigration policies and historical context
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pushed to attract half a million immigrants per year by 2025. By 2023, immigration accounted for 97% of population growth. However, critics argued the influx strained housing, social services, and youth employment. Trudeau later reduced immigration targets to slow population growth, acknowledging the post-pandemic increase had upset the balance.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has continued this approach, lowering temporary resident targets from 673,650 to 385,000 next year, and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
Provincial impact and outlook
Preliminary data shows Canada’s population fell 0.2% in the third quarter of 2025, the first decline since the 2020 Covid pandemic. Ontario and British Columbia experienced the largest drops, while Alberta and Nunavut saw population increases.
Non-permanent residents now total over 2.8 million, roughly 6.8% of the national population. Analysts view these trends as a major story for Canada’s economy and demographic planning in the years ahead.
