Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in New Delhi for a significant two-day visit, warmly welcomed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two leaders are expected to sign several key agreements during their annual summit — a meeting that arrives at a crucial moment in global politics.
This visit comes just months after the US increased pressure on India to cut down its purchases of discounted Russian oil. Meanwhile, Washington under President Donald Trump is also attempting diplomatic talks with Russia and Ukraine to bring the ongoing war closer to resolution.
Despite global tensions, India and Russia continue to share one of the world’s most enduring strategic partnerships — strengthened further by the personal rapport between Modi and Putin.
Why Russia Needs India
Russia views India as a critical partner for several reasons:
1. A Massive Market
- India’s population is nearly 1.5 billion.
- Its economy is growing over 8%, making it the fastest-growing major economy globally.
This makes India an ideal destination for Russian exports — especially oil.
2. India’s Rising Oil Purchases
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India’s crude oil came from Russia.
But after sanctions hit Moscow, Russia offered steep discounts. This pushed India’s share of Russian oil imports to 35%.
India benefited from low-cost oil, but Washington was displeased, accusing India of indirectly funding Russia’s war. The US responded by imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, forcing India to reduce its oil imports from Russia.
Putin now hopes to persuade India to maintain — or increase — purchases of Russian crude.
3. Defence Cooperation
India has long relied on Russia for military equipment. Ahead of Putin’s visit, reports suggest India plans to buy:
- Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets
- S-500 upgraded air defence systems
Russia also sees India as a source of skilled workers amid its labour shortages.
4. Geopolitical Signalling
By visiting India, Putin wants to show that:
- The West has failed to isolate Russia.
- Moscow still has strong allies in Asia.
- The global order is shifting towards a multi-polar world, led by powers like Russia, China, and India.
Why Modi Needs Putin
This visit is equally important for India:
1. Protecting India’s “Strategic Autonomy”
India has always balanced relations between major world powers — staying close to Russia while strengthening ties with the US and Europe.
But Trump’s return to the White House has complicated things:
- India-US relations have deteriorated over unresolved tariff disputes.
- Europe is pressuring India to take a clearer stand against Russia on Ukraine.
Modi must now carefully maintain this balance.
2. Defence Urgency
India’s recent border tensions with Pakistan highlighted the importance of systems like the S-400. But sanctions have slowed Russia’s production, delaying deliveries until at least 2026.
Modi will push for:
- Clear delivery timelines
- Assurances for new fighter jets and defence systems
With Pakistan purchasing China’s J-35 stealth jet, India is eager to acquire the Su-57 to restore regional balance.
3. Fixing Trade Imbalance
India’s exports to Russia remain very small. The largest categories — smartphones, seafood, meat, and garments — together make up only a fraction of the total trade.
Modi wants:
- More Indian products in Russian markets
- Reduced dependence on oil and weapons
- Long-term trade opportunities once Russia returns to the global economy
4. Future of India–Russia Relations
According to GTRI analysts:
- A modest agreement will strengthen cooperation in oil and defence.
- An ambitious agreement could reshape regional economic dynamics once the Ukraine war ends.
This visit is not about nostalgia — it is about negotiating future risks, supply chains, and strategic independence.
