Report Used Public Data but Raised Alarm Inside Government
The Trump administration asked for redactions to a major Heritage Foundation report that modeled a possible war between the United States and China over Taiwan. This happened even though the study relied only on public, unclassified sources, according to the authors.
The report, titled TIDALWAVE, warns that the United States could hit a breaking point within weeks of a high intensity conflict. As a result, senior national security officials raised concerns that foreign adversaries could study the findings and spot military weaknesses.
Early Losses Could Decide the War
According to the report, American forces would wear down much faster than Chinese forces. The study defines this breaking point as the moment when a military can no longer continue operations due to losses in equipment, fuel, or ammunition.
Moreover, the first thirty to sixty days of a conflict would shape the entire war. Losses in aircraft, ships, fuel flow, and munitions would pile up quickly and could not be replaced in time.
The authors conclude that the United States is not prepared to protect or sustain its joint forces in the Indo Pacific. Weak logistics, limited industrial surge capacity, and concentrated bases would push US forces toward an early collapse.
Pacific Bases Face Severe Risk
The report highlights a major vulnerability. The United States depends on a small number of large forward bases, especially in Japan and Guam. Chinese missile strikes could overwhelm these sites early in a conflict.
In several scenarios, up to ninety percent of US and allied aircraft at key bases were destroyed on the ground. Runways, fuel storage, command centers, and parked aircraft were hit at the same time.
Ammunition and Fuel Shortages Escalate Fast
The report finds that critical US precision weapons would begin running out within five to seven days of major combat. In most scenarios, these munitions were fully exhausted within about forty days.
Fuel stands out as the most serious weakness. The issue is not total fuel supply. Instead, the problem is moving fuel while under attack. Chinese strategy focuses on hitting tankers, ports, and pipelines. Even limited disruptions could force US commanders to scale back operations.
China Can Fight Longer
In contrast, China could sustain intense combat for months longer. While its stockpiles would begin to shrink after several weeks, substitution and domestic production would extend its ability to fight well past the point where US forces would stall.
Global Economy Faces Massive Shock
The report also warns of global consequences. A war over Taiwan would likely trigger an economic shock estimated at ten trillion dollars.
Shipping disruptions, damaged infrastructure, and the collapse of Taiwan semiconductor production would ripple through global markets, manufacturing, and trade.
Industrial Capacity Lags Behind
The findings arrive as concerns grow about US military readiness. China continues to expand its navy and shipbuilding capacity, while American shipyards struggle with delays, workforce shortages, and aging facilities.
Military leaders say they plan to move the Pentagon toward a wartime industrial footing. However, the report argues that current efforts remain too slow.
Deterrence Could Collapse
Perhaps most troubling, the report warns that heavy losses in the Pacific would leave the United States unable to respond to another major conflict. This could invite further aggression from rivals like Russia, Iran, or North Korea.
The authors argue that existing programs and funding do not match the scale or urgency of the threat.
Call for Immediate Action
To avoid defeat, the report urges Congress to rapidly expand munitions stockpiles, improve fuel infrastructure, harden and disperse forward bases, and overhaul logistics systems.
With intelligence warnings growing that China could act on Taiwan before the decade ends, the authors say time is running out.
