For the first time in at least fifty years, more immigrants left the United States than entered it in 2025. Economists say stricter immigration enforcement under the Trump administration drove the shift and could reshape the US economy in the years ahead.
A new report from the Brookings Institution found that net migration turned negative after decades of steady growth. As immigration slowed, departures increased through deportations and voluntary exits.
What the New Report Shows
According to Brookings, entries into the United States dropped sharply in 2025 compared with the previous year. At the same time, immigration enforcement expanded, which led to more removals and self departures.
As a result, researchers estimate net migration fell somewhere between ten thousand and nearly three hundred thousand people in 2025. That marks the first negative reading in at least half a century.
Looking ahead, economists expect this trend to continue. They say net migration will likely remain very low or stay negative through 2026.
Economic Impact Could Grow
Lower immigration levels could slow the broader economy. Brookings warns that reduced migration will limit labor force growth and weaken consumer spending.
Because of that, economists now estimate that sustainable monthly job growth may sit between twenty thousand and fifty thousand jobs by late 2025. If current trends continue, job growth could even turn negative in 2026.
These changes could affect industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor, including construction, agriculture, and services.
Why Fewer Immigrants Are Arriving
Although deportations attract the most public attention, the report says fewer new arrivals made the biggest difference. In particular, officials approved fewer people through humanitarian parole and refugee programs. Border crossings in the Southwest also declined.
Brookings said the first year of Trump’s second term brought major shifts in immigration policy. Those policies sharply reduced overall migration, and economists expect enforcement to remain strict in the coming year.
How This Compares to the Biden Years
During the Biden administration, immigration surged. Reports showed between two and three million people entered the United States each year during that period.
However, Brookings noted that its estimate differs from other forecasts. The Congressional Budget Office recently projected positive net migration of about four hundred thousand people for 2025.
Brookings says the difference comes down to assumptions. Its analysis counts more deportations and assumes voluntary departures increase when enforcement rises. By contrast, the CBO assumes fewer removals and less voluntary exit.
A Turning Point for US Immigration
While economists continue to debate the exact figures, they agree on one point. The United States has entered a new phase of immigration policy with real economic consequences.
If enforcement remains tight, negative migration could become a lasting feature rather than a short term anomaly.
