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Baner Club > Blog > Election > Who will win the midterms? How the US elections will be won and lost
ElectionUnited States

Who will win the midterms? How the US elections will be won and lost

Last updated: 2026/11/03 at 4:15 PM
Published November 3, 2026
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5 Min Read
Donald Trump and the US Capitol building ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The 2026 US midterm elections could determine whether Republicans maintain control of Congress.
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In order to determine how the remainder of Donald Trump’s administration will unfold, Americans are voting in the midterm elections.

Contents
Quick FactMidterms come at bad time for Trump The battle for the House The battle for the Senate What are the key issues for voters? Can Trump defy political gravity?

In the US, thousands of races are occurring at various governmental levels. However, the election of representatives to the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that comprise Congress, will be the primary event for voters.

The president’s party, the Republicans, presently controls both of them. The result might determine whether Trump’s remaining two years in office are successful or not.

Quick Fact

Detail Information
What Happened 2026 US Midterm Elections
Where United States
Election Date November 3, 2026
Key Figures Donald Trump, Republicans and Democrats
Main Contests US House of Representatives and Senate
House Seats All 435 seats
Senate Seats 35 seats
Main Issues Inflation, immigration, healthcare and foreign policy
Why It Matters The results will shape Trump's remaining presidency
Current Status Election Day, November 3, 2026

Midterms come at bad time for Trump

The president’s poor support rating, which is a solid predictor of his party’s potential performance, is one of the reasons the opposition Democrats have an opportunity to retake Congress.

According to the polling resource website Silver Bulletin, he started his second term as president with an approval rating of little over 50%, but it soon dropped into the 40s.

When Trump chose to commence airstrikes on Iran with Israel at the end of February this year, it was about 42%, but soon after, it dropped below 40%. Right now, it stands at around 38%.

The battle for the House

With 218 representatives—exactly the number required for control—as well as one independent who votes with them, the Republican majority in the lower house, the House of Representatives, is now as narrow as it gets.

All 435 House seats are up for election in November because members are elected to two-year terms.

However, the majority of districts are not seen as competitive because there is only one likely winner because to the strong support of the party holding them.

According to the Cook Political Report, which examines elections and campaigns, 18 districts are “toss-ups” that any party may win.

The battle for the Senate

The Senate is slightly more in the hands of the Republicans. They control 53 of the 100 seats, compared to the Democrats’ 45 and the votes of two independents.

Approximately one-third of Senate members are up for election every two years due to their six-year mandates.

Only six of the 35 seats up for grabs in November appear to be toss-ups that may go either way, according to the Cook Political Report’s analysis.

Republicans currently control all six of those toss-ups. Three of those seats would need to be won by the Democrats.

What are the key issues for voters?

Although Trump promised to “end inflation and make America affordable again” throughout his 2024 campaign, voters’ primary concern is the cost of living issues.

In his State of the Union speech on February 24, the president boasted that petrol prices were “now below $2.30 [£1.74] a gallon in most states.” However, the conflict with Iran started four days later, upsetting Middle Eastern energy supplies and driving up the price of gas to $4 (£3.03) in the United States.

Voters also cite immigration and healthcare as major issues.

Can Trump defy political gravity?

The majority of indicators suggest that the Democrats will win the midterm, but if Trump and his party do win more seats than anticipated, it would not be the first time that they have surpassed polls.

Their enormous financial advantage is one of the few elements that work in their favor.

The Republicans had over $320 million (£240 million) in cash on hand in mid-October, while the Democrats had slightly less than $230 million (£170 million).

Additionally, the Republicans had more than $160 million (£120 million) in Trump’s account, which is the primary source of funding and expenditure for the “Make America Great Again” campaign effort.

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