Asian tiger mosquitoes, which are spreading throughout Europe and are found in areas of southern France, Italy, and Spain, are the carriers of the disease.
This summer, the mosquito was even observed during the Olympics in Paris.
Dengue fever is known as “break-bone fever” because it can cause excruciating pain in the muscles and joints, and in rare instances, it can cause internal hemorrhage and even death.
However, up until now, localized attempts have not been made to forecast its spread.
A group at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology has now created a monitoring system that has the ability to accurately forecast outbreaks to within 10 kilometers.
Sicily is a hotbed,” said Dr Steven White, a theoretical ecologist who worked on the paper, adding that the locations around the Mediterranean basin are also “high-risk areas”
Dengue fever has spread as far north in Europe as Paris, where the disease first appeared last year.
When returning travelers who were infected while overseas are bitten by mosquitoes, they pick up the virus and spread it to other persons in the vicinity.
Because of “a favourable climate, a stable mosquito population, and the high number of travellers returning from tropical countries where the disease is prevalent,” southern France and northern Italy are at high risk, according to Dr. Dominic Brass, an epidemiological modeller at UKCEH who oversaw the study.
