Donald Trump’s public popularity has steadily declined since he returned to the White House last January. The rising cost of living and the economic pressures have been key factors. The Democrats have performed better at recent elections because of these issues.
Democrats gain ground in elections
The Downballot data shows that Democrats will perform 13% higher in special elections 2025 than they did in presidential elections 2024 in the same districts.
The shift in voting behavior suggests that the voters’ reaction to policy and economic concerns is a result of stress.
Iran war adds economic strain
The current conflict in Iran is increasing pressure on the US Economy. Fuel prices rose sharply and reached nearly $4 per gallon in just a few weeks after the conflict.
The Economic Approval continues to fall
Ipsos’ polling shows that confidence in Trump’s economic management has declined. Early in Trump’s term, approval was at 43%. By June 2025 it had dropped to just 35%. The level remained at this same level throughout the remainder of the year.
The decline in the economy is a sign of growing unhappiness with current economic conditions.
Overall Support Near Risk Zone
By late February when the Iran War began, however, this support had dropped to just 42%. The support has dropped to about 40%.
The midterm election is approaching and this level of risky behavior for any president in office can be dangerous.
The stakes in politics continue to rise
The Conservative Political Action Conference saw Republican leaders stressing the importance of the upcoming election.
Michael Whatley warns that Republicans could suffer political and legal setbacks if they lose control.
The Stronger Base Limits the Bigger Drop
Trump’s popularity hasn’t fallen despite these obstacles. One of the main reasons is that his core supporters continue to support him.
Pew Research Center’s research shows that even though economic worries are growing, his supporters remain loyal.
The Meaning of the Future
Economic risk increases as the Iran conflict drags on. The outcome of the upcoming election could be influenced by rising prices and frustration among voters.
Trump’s future political prospects may be determined by how fast these pressures are eased.
