EV numbers in Africa set to rise sharply.
Electric vehicle use in Africa is expected to grow quickly in the coming decades. A new study estimates that the number of EVs on the continent will double by 2050. This pace is faster than in any other region.
Researchers from ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute led the study. They found that EVs can become affordable sooner than many experts expect. This is especially true when drivers use solar-based charging instead of relying on the power grid.
Study challenges common assumption.
Many forecasts assume petrol and diesel vehicles will dominate Africa for decades. However, the study reaches a different conclusion.
Lead researcher Bessie Noll said electric mobility could work earlier under the right conditions. According to the research, EVs paired with solar charging systems can compete on cost well before 2040 in many countries.
Financing remains the biggest hurdle.
The study shows that money, not technology, is the main barrier to EV adoption in Africa. Electric vehicles cost more upfront, which makes financing critical.
In many countries, lenders view investments as risky. As a result, loan costs are high. This slows down EV adoption.
However, the researchers see clear solutions. Government guarantees, new loan structures, and international backing could lower financing costs. If that happens, adoption could speed up quickly.
In addition, electric mobility could support local economies. It could create jobs through vehicle assembly, maintenance, and new services across the supply chain.
EV adoption will vary by country
The researchers stress that Africa is not one market. Conditions differ widely across the continent.
For example, countries such as Botswana and South Africa have more stable financing systems. Because of this, EVs could become competitive there much sooner.
On the other hand, countries with high borrowing costs, such as Guinea, may see slower progress. Even so, the long-term outlook remains positive.
Solar charging unlocks wider access.
Charging infrastructure plays a major role in EV adoption. In many African regions, the power grid is unreliable or unavailable.
To address this, the researchers studied 52 countries and more than 2,000 locations. They tested scenarios where EVs rely on dedicated solar charging systems with batteries.
Their findings are promising. A small solar setup can support a compact car that drives about 50 kilometres per day. Charging costs make up only a small share of total vehicle expenses.
In fact, switching to electric scooters and motorbikes already makes financial sense in many areas.
Synthetic fuels fall short
The study also compared EVs with vehicles powered by synthetic fuels. These options performed poorly in cost comparisons.
Even when researchers assumed very cheap solar energy from places like Chile, synthetic fuel vehicles remained expensive.
PSI researcher Christian Moretti explained that synthetic fuels have better uses elsewhere. Aviation and heavy industry need them more urgently. As a result, they are not a practical solution for road transport in Africa.
EV transition raises tax concerns worldwide.
A second study involving Bessie Noll looks at a different issue. It examines how EV growth affects government budgets around the world.
Today, fuel taxes generate about 900 billion dollars each year. Many countries use this money to fund roads and transport systems.
As EV use grows, this revenue will decline. This creates serious budget challenges.
Noll said the shift to EVs supports climate goals but raises hard financial questions. Early tax reforms and global cooperation could help prevent funding gaps.
A feasible path with the right policies
Together, the studies show that electric vehicles can work in Africa. The technology exists,s and the economics can make sense.
However, success depends on smart policies. Governments must look at energy, transport, and finance together. With the right support, EVs could play a major role in Africa’s future transport system.
