In contrast to previous years, the uncertainty surrounding the general elections scheduled for February 8 has forced major political parties and local organizations to solidify their election campaigns only in this last stretch of the campaign. Political parties are now finalizing seat modifications as a result.
The PML-N’s chances of building a coalition government in Balochistan improved after a large number of electables from the region joined the party in November of last year. But the PPP also began attempting to include those electables who left the PML-N in its fold.
While Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif, and Maryam Nawaz, the central leadership of the PML-N, only made one visit to Balochistan, Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the PPP made three visits and plan to make more ones throughout the election campaign.
After Sarfaraz Bugti, the former caretaker interior minister who was well-known for his tight ties to the nation’s power brokers, joined the PPP, electables and influentials in Balochistan were interested in the party. From his home town of Dera Bugti, Bugti is running for a provincial assembly seat on the PPP platform. Although Bugti had previously expressed a desire to join the PML-N, sources indicate he was “asked” to join the PPP in order to compete for the position of chief minister of Balochistan. The PPP appears content with its ability to establish a government coalition in Balochistan, having succeeded in obtaining a sufficient number of electables.
It’s expected that the PML-N and PPP would fight it out for enough seats to form the government of Balochistan. It actually depends on the powers-that-be, as electables in Balochistan rely on their support. Political analysts believe that the PPP has a good chance of defeating the PML-N for more seats in the province, pointing to the party’s central leaders’ more accommodating stance toward some groups as evidence that things are starting to turn in the party’s favor in Balochistan.
Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the leader of JUI-F, is running for a Balochistani National Assembly seat for the first time. Mahmood Khan Achakzai of PkMAP and he have formed an alliance, however it is only for two seats in the National Assembly.
Maulana wants to keep his seat in the National Assembly because he sees the PTI’s popularity in his home district of Dera Ismail Khan as a danger.
Even if Maulana is capable of winning the Pishin seat without PkMAP’s assistance, he is more interested in seeing Mahmood Khan Achakzai win NA-262, Quetta City. The JUI-F withdrew their candidate from the NA-265 Pishin seat in Quetta, defeating Achakzai, who then retracted his candidacy papers.
Following the split of his party, Achakzai suffered a blow and is now reliant on his former political opponent turned ally, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, for these elections. Additionally, Achakzai is running from his home seat, NA-266 Chaman-Killa Abdullah, against Salahuddin Ayubi, a nominee for the JUI-F, who had already defeated him in the 2018 elections.
The Awami National Party, National Democratic Movement, and Pakhtoonkhawa National Awami Party—a significant ideological group that broke with Mahmood Achakzai—have formed an agreement for seat adjustment in light of the JUI-F-PkMAP alliance. Since each group has a distinct sphere of influence, this coalition may not be beneficial for its allies in the elections, with the possible exception of a few constituencies. It could, however, reduce Achakzai’s party’s vote total.
In addition, the JUI-F and the Balochistan National Party (Mengal) have reached an agreement over NA-256 Khuzdar. Sardar Akhtar Mengal will receive support from his party, which will then back JUI-F candidate Yunis Aziz Zahri for the provincial assembly seat. Mengal is also running for the provincial assembly seat in Khuzdar-Wadh, as well as NA-264 Quetta-III and NA-261 Surab-Kalat-Mastung.
In opposition to Jam Kamal, the former chief minister who appears to be in a more comfortable position than the Bhoothanis, Mengal has forged an alliance with the Bhoothanis. Aslam Bhoothani is in a precarious position regarding the National Assembly seat, while Sardar Salah may be able to hold onto his seat in the province assembly, Hub.
Despite being close relatives, arch rivals Sardar Akhtar Mengal and Jam Kamal want to lessen one another’s political clout. While Jam Kamal is lending support to his nemesis, the Bhoothanis, Ali Hassan Zahri, who is connected to Mengal’s political and tribal rival Nawab Sanaullah Zahri, Mengal is siding with the Bhothanis.
The PML-N’s nominee for NA-257 Hub-Lasbela-Awaran and the Lasbela provincial assembly seat, Jam Kamal, has also formed an alliance with the National Party, led by Dr. Malik Baloch. In addition, Kamal would back National Party candidates in Hub and Awaran provincial assembly districts against PPP nominee and former chief minister Qudoos Bizenjo. The National Party is endorsing Jam Kamal for the NA and PA Lasbela seats.
In addition to backing Jam Kamal in his bid for the National Assembly seat against the Bhoothanis, the PPP’s nominee for the Hub provincial assembly seat, Ali Hassan Zahri, is well-known for being close to Zardari. Zahri will receive support for his provincial assembly bid.
The son of Imam Bheel Bizenjo, Mir Yaqub Bizenjo, and BNP-Mengal have also reached an agreement for NA-259 Kechh-Gwadar and the Gwadar provincial assembly seat. Mir Hammal Kamalti, the BNP’s nominee, is running for the provincial assembly seat, and junior Bizenjo is trying to get a NA seat. Although Yaqub received ticket offers from the PPP and PML-N, he has chosen to run as an independent. Dr. Malik Baloch, the head of the National Party and a former chief minister, will most likely be his opponent.
Despite the PTI’s limited presence in Balochistan, its popularity has grown, especially among young people, following the party’s recent troubles. Without a party emblem, PTI candidates can receive a sizable amount of votes, but not enough to win.Every major political party, including the PML-N, PPP, and JUI-F, is having trouble with “rebels” in the party who were not given party tickets and are now competing on their own and forming coalitions as suits them.
