Europe could face a serious jet fuel shortage within weeks, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency warned that current reserves may last only about six weeks if supply disruptions continue.
The crisis is linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, has remained blocked for over six weeks. This route is critical for transporting jet fuel from the Gulf region.
Supply Disruptions Push Prices Higher
The Middle East has long been Europe’s main source of jet fuel, supplying around 75% of its imports. With shipments now disrupted, prices have surged sharply.
Jet fuel prices in Europe recently reached a record high of $1,838 per tonne. Before the conflict, the price was around $831. This sudden increase has raised concerns across the aviation industry.
Airlines are under pressure because fuel makes up 20% to 40% of their operating costs. Many are already taking emergency steps to manage rising expenses.
Europe Searches for Alternative Sources
European countries are now trying to replace lost supplies by importing fuel from other regions. The United States and Nigeria have stepped in to provide additional shipments.
The IEA reported a rapid rise in US jet fuel exports in recent weeks. However, even if all shipments go to Europe, they would only cover just over half of the missing supply.
Other major exporters like Korea, India, and China also rely on crude oil from the Middle East. This limits their ability to fully support Europe during the crisis.
Risk of Flight Disruptions Grows
Experts warn that if Europe cannot replace at least 50% of its lost fuel imports, shortages could soon appear at certain airports. This may lead to flight cancellations and reduced travel demand.
Even if Europe manages to replace up to 75% of supplies, problems could still arise later in the summer.
Industry analysts say major airports will likely receive priority. Smaller airports may face the biggest impact if fuel becomes scarce.
Delays Expected Even if Supplies Resume
Even if shipments from the Gulf restart soon, recovery will take time. Experts estimate it could take five to six weeks for supply chains to stabilize.
This delay means Europe may still face shortages during the peak summer travel season.
Authorities Monitor the Situation Closely
Officials say there is currently no immediate fuel shortage across Europe. However, they acknowledge that supply issues could develop soon if the situation does not improve.
The IEA stressed that Europe must secure more alternative fuel sources to avoid disruption in the coming months.
