NOAA has maintained its forecast for a below normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as the peak period of hurricane activity approaches in September.
Forecasters now expect 7 to 13 named storms during the full season. Between 2 and 6 could reach hurricane strength, while up to 2 may become major hurricanes.
Quick Facts
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| What happened | NOAA maintained its forecast for a below normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. |
| Forecast period | June 1 to November 30, 2026 |
| Named storms expected | 7 to 13 |
| Hurricanes expected | 2 to 6 |
| Major hurricanes expected | 0 to 2 |
| Below normal probability | 75% |
| Near normal probability | 20% |
| Above normal probability | 5% |
| Named storms so far | Arthur and Bertha |
| Main climate factor | El Nino |
| Typical Atlantic season | 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes |
NOAA continues to expect a quieter than average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026.
The agency gives the season a 75% chance of below normal activity. It puts the chance of a near normal season at 20%. The probability of an above normal season stands at only 5%.
The forecast covers the entire Atlantic hurricane season. The season runs from June 1 through November 30.
NOAA expects between 7 and 13 named storms. Of those storms, 2 to 6 could become hurricanes. Between zero and two could reach major hurricane strength
Two Named Storms Have Formed
The Atlantic season has produced two named storms so far, Arthur and Bertha.
Tropical Storm Arthur became the first named storm of the 2026 season. It formed in June over the Gulf of America near the Texas coast.
Arthur brought heavy rainfall to parts of Louisiana. The storm also produced tornadoes along parts of the Gulf Coast.
Bertha later developed in the Gulf near the Florida Panhandle. It eventually moved into Louisiana and made landfall in St. Bernard Parish.
Neither storm became a hurricane.
NOAA also warns that a storm does not need to reach hurricane strength to cause serious problems. Heavy rainfall can create major risks for communities.
El Nino Could Limit Atlantic Storm Activity
Forecasters point to El Nino as a major reason for the below normal outlook.
El Nino developed in the equatorial Pacific in June. The climate pattern often increases wind shear over the Atlantic.
Strong wind shear can make it harder for tropical systems to form. It can also weaken storms that have already developed.
Atlantic Ocean temperatures remain close to average. NOAA also considers the west African monsoon neutral.
Forecaster Matt Rosencrans said El Nino can become the main factor controlling overall hurricane activity when the pattern strengthens.
Atlantic Season Remains Below Average
A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces about 14 named storms.
On average, seven of those storms become hurricanes. Around three reach major hurricane strength.
NOAA’s current forecast sits below those long term averages.
However, the forecast does not predict where storms will make landfall. Individual storm tracks depend on shorter term weather conditions.
Pacific Hurricane Activity Could Increase
The same El Nino pattern that can reduce Atlantic activity can support stronger tropical development in the Pacific.
NOAA expects an above average season in the Eastern Pacific. Its forecast calls for 15 to 22 named storms.
The region has already recorded seven named storms. Two became hurricanes, including one major hurricane.
NOAA also expects above normal activity in the Central Pacific. Its outlook calls for 5 to 13 named storms and tropical depressions.
Why Below Normal Seasons Still Pose Risks
A below normal seasonal forecast does not mean coastal communities face no danger.
Even one tropical storm can bring flooding, strong winds and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall can also cause serious damage far from the storm’s center.
NOAA stresses the importance of preparing for every storm that could affect a community.
Seasonal forecasts also cannot determine exact landfall locations months in advance. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center provides shorter range forecasts for individual tropical systems.
Communities Should Stay Alert During Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season continues through November 30.
NOAA will continue monitoring tropical conditions across the basin. The National Hurricane Center will issue forecasts, watches and warnings when individual systems threaten land.
NOAA continues to forecast a below normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The agency expects 7 to 13 named storms, including 2 to 6 hurricanes and up to 2 major hurricanes.
El Nino remains the main factor behind the quieter outlook. Still, communities should stay prepared because even a weaker tropical system can produce dangerous rainfall and flooding.
