Reform UK Leads Early Results
Sir John Curtice says the latest local election results confirm that British politics is becoming more divided and less predictable. Instead of a clear two party system, votes are now spreading across several parties.
Reform UK is currently ahead in the results. It has won around 30% of declared seats and averages about 26% of the vote in sampled wards. This is not a dominant majority, but it still places the party in front of all others at this stage.
Strong Regional Divide in Reform Support
Reform’s performance is very uneven across the country. In areas that strongly supported leaving the European Union, its average support rises to about 41%. In contrast, in areas where fewer people backed Brexit, its support drops to around 10%.
This shows that Reform’s vote is concentrated in specific regions rather than spread evenly across the country.
Green Party Sees Steady Growth but Limited Wins
The Green Party is also improving its vote share. It now averages around 16%, which is higher than in the 2022 local elections and also above its performance around the 2024 general election period.
However, this increase is not translating into many council wins. The party is often finishing in second or third place rather than first. So far, it has gained only a small number of additional seats, even though its overall support has grown.
Labour Faces Sharp Decline in Support
Labour is experiencing a major drop in backing. On average, its vote share is down by about 16 points compared with 2022, and the fall is even larger compared with 2024.
The losses are strongest in areas where Labour was previously dominant. The party has also performed worse in some communities, which has contributed to significant seat losses. Labour has already lost hundreds of council seats and control in several local authorities.
Conservatives Also Under Pressure from Reform
The Conservative Party is also losing support. Its vote share has fallen by around 11 points since 2022 and continues to decline compared with 2024 levels.
The biggest losses are happening in areas where Reform is strong. This suggests that Reform is directly competing with Conservative voters in many places, increasing pressure on the party’s overall position.
Fragmented Political Landscape Emerging
Overall, Curtice’s analysis shows that no single party is dominating across the country. Instead:
- Reform is leading in specific strong areas
- Greens are growing but not converting votes into seats efficiently
- Labour and Conservatives are both losing support at the same time
This pattern shows a more fragmented political system where voter support is split across multiple parties instead of concentrated in two main blocs.
