Election outcome and political dominance
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party has secured a sweeping victory in the general election, winning 438 of the 501 contested seats. This result ensures another term for Abiy and confirms his strong control over parliament. The government is expected to continue under his leadership when he is sworn in for a new term in October.
Supporters of Abiy say the outcome reflects stability and progress. They point to economic reforms and development efforts as signs of positive change in the country.
Low participation and disputed legitimacy
The election took place in a tense environment. Several opposition groups did not take part, and many questioned the fairness of the process. Security problems also disrupted voting in parts of the country.
On election day, 143 polling stations did not open in the two most populated regions due to clashes involving armed groups. This raised further doubts about how inclusive the vote could be.
Armed conflict and regional instability
Security remains one of Ethiopia’s biggest challenges. Armed groups such as the Fano militia in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia rejected the election results. Both groups are pushing for greater autonomy and continue to clash with government forces.
In Tigray, the situation is still fragile after a two year civil war that ended in 2022. The region, which includes around six million people, was fully excluded from the election. This exclusion increased fears that tensions could escalate again.
Tensions with Eritrea and regional risks
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also worsened. During the Tigray conflict, the two countries were aligned against Tigrayan forces. Since then, relations have broken down sharply.
Ethiopia has repeatedly raised the issue of access to a Red Sea port, which it lost after Eritrea became independent in 1993. Eritrea, in turn, accuses Ethiopia of expansionist ambitions.
Analysts warn that shifting alliances between Eritrea, Tigrayan leaders, and Ethiopian authorities could increase the risk of renewed regional conflict.
Wider regional instability
Ethiopia is also facing external pressure linked to the ongoing war in Sudan. Reports have suggested possible Ethiopian support for one of Sudan’s armed factions, although the government denies this. The situation adds another layer of uncertainty in an already volatile region.
