Voters in the twin elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough are expected to cast their ballots next week; Reform UK and Labour pose a danger to the Tories. However, growing fissures within Labour may also impede its electoral advancement.
There’s also a risk that Labour, on track to win both seats, may hand the party its worst-ever defeat.
However, growing differences within Labour about the Middle East crisis and the recent abandonment of the green investment plan could impede its electoral advancement.
Though the Conservative-Labour conflict may be lessened, Reform UK’s growing support yet poses a challenge to the party.
It is vying for support from disgruntled Conservatives as well as open seats.
In the event that boundary changes occur in their current constituencies, more Conservative incumbents may decide that it would be easier to flee rather than fight.
The Conservatives had a great start to the by-elections in this session. It took Hartlepool from Labour in May 2021, marking one of the rare instances in which a party in power has taken a seat away from the opposition.
